High-impact scholars reveals how to achieve "carbon neutral" China

Implementation in China 2060 years ago has announced a "carbon neutral" target, then the power system to be over 2050 years ago to carbon dioxide "net zero emissions".

Recently, the two leading and influential Chinese climate research institutions respectively issued the "new situation" necessary to achieve the above goals and policy recommendations.Two reports to put forward the above insights in the main point.

These "new situation" revealed that China's leaders the thinking behind the jinping published the declaration, also helps us to glimpse, understand the meaning of the target energy systems of China and even the world.China's accounting for almost 30% of global carbon dioxide emissions, coal consumption accounted for more than half of the world, coal-fired generation accounted for half of the world.

In phasing out fossil energy, the two scene view of convergence: by 2050, more than 85% of the total energy supply and more than 90% of the power supply shall be from the fossil energy, renewable energy and nuclear energy.

The energy path is in "carbon neutral" target on September 22announcedBefore the public.It shows that on China's future energy system, way of thinking has changed.These scenarios also highlighted xi President failed to clear some issues in a statement.According to the official translation, brief and to the point of his speech: "(China)Carbon dioxide emissions to peak in the 2030 years ago, strive to become carbon neutral 2060 years ago."

The new situation

As the first "new situation" from "China's low carbon development strategy and path of transition (click here to viewspeech) by climate change and sustainable development research institute, tsinghua university (ICCSD) on October 12, 18 research institutions in Chinarelease.

Almost at the same time, in the recently did a report (With the Chinese, starting with 3:46),Tsinghua university institute of energy - environment - economy(also known as "tsinghua university institute of 3 e") of professor xi-liang zhang also talked about in 2050, 2060 or 2070 "carbon neutral" brought about by the energy and economic impact.The study seems to be set up in 2060 for fixed number of year of the target provides reference.

Both scenarios show that electric power department needs to realize "zero emissions" in 2050, and since then began to offer"Negative emissions"(assuming that by" biomass and carbon dioxide capture and storage ", namelyBECCS) to offset produced by industrial processes, agriculture and other departments is difficult to eliminate emissions.

Tsinghua university, and is expected to 3 e institute, do not use the "carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) of coal will be at the end of the 2050 basic;But before 2060, the electric power department will continue to extensive use of coal.In ICCSD scenario, the proportion of coal in energy structure of the whole has dropped to below 5% in 2050.

To phase out fossil fuel means that by 2050, more than 85% of the energy and more than 90% of electricity should come from non-fossil energy, renewable energy and nuclear energy.

More ambitious

2060 target obviously created a space for the more ambitious energy planning.The latest situation in 2060 compared to previous forecast together, this is self-evident.

For example,The national center for renewable energy(a part in China's top economic planning department "the National Development and Reform Commission"), a think-tank in last year's published"2019 China's renewable energy development outlook,Expect, non-fossil energy accounted for only 2050 will reach 65%.You know, the annual report has long been considered is bullish on the renewable energy market.

In the new situation, in the power industry, the main strategy is to phase out fossil fuel "electrification".This means that "zero emissions" power production not only need to replace China stock accounted for half of the worldCoal-fired power plants, also need to replace the industrial, transportation and heating industry a lot of coal and oil consumption.

As energy consumption in the world's largest economies, the use of fossil fuels to meet its energy demand appears to be a huge task.

According to the tsinghua university institute of 3 e, this would mean that by 2050, China's solar power generation capacity will increase about 10 times, wind energy and nuclear energy will rise seven times.At that time, China's solar power generation capacity will be the global solar power generation capacity of more than four times, three times the wind power generation capacity, its nuclear power generation capacity will also achieve the current level of 80% of the global total.

However, these scenes surprising: given the size of the current China's clean energy industry has obtained, the actual growth rate is quite limited.

Between 2020 and 2050, solar and wind power installed capacity in 2016 and 2020 would be needed to double again, on the basis of the nuclear growth to more than double.

At the school of 3 e believe that the total energy consumption will reach the peak in 2035.After that, the growth of clean energy should be used to completely replace the existing fossil fuel use.It would be in contrast with the current situation: due to the rapid growth of the overall energy demand, despite the increasing proportion of clean energy, but also constantly increase emissions.

In ICCSD consistent with the global warming 2 ℃ targets put forward by the scene, to emphasize the role of electrification, total investment in the energy sector will flock to almost all the power.

The two new situation, to achieve a "carbon neutral" in guarantee compatible with 1.5 ℃ targets at the same time, you need to invest heavily in electric power department"Negative".According to the idea, this is achieved by biomass and carbon dioxide capture and storage (namely "biomass CCS", or BECCS).

2 ℃ in ICCSD scenario, from 2020 to 2050, in new investment of 100 trillion yuan (about $15 trillion), equivalent to 1.5 to 2.0% of the country's GDP.To this, the researchers believe that this has to do with the European Union for 50-55% of the target for 2030 of investment scale.The investments they need to achieve 1.5 ℃ path will be increased to 140 trillion yuan (about $21 trillion).

Key details

After the comparison of different prediction model, some key details still to be read emerges.

Around what should be included in the commitment, how much carbon dioxide emissions can beThe ecological systemAbsorption, how many carbon dioxide it can remove the problems with "negative" technology of different assumptions, the result of the prediction of the energy sector emissions and six to one.

A researcher in as ecological environmental protectionTo speakStresses, optimistic, eliminate carbon dioxide through afforestation, can leave more for the stock of fossil fuel emissions.

Another important question is, whether this goal only for carbon dioxide, or cover all the greenhouse gases (GHGs).If the latter, then the energy sector emissions should be faster decline, should also be further progressive reduction depth, after all, some source of greenhouse gas emissions is difficult to eradicate.

In many predict ICCSD scene is relatively more ambitious.One of the reasons is that, in reading "carbon neutral" goal, the researchers included all greenhouse gas emissions.

However, with"China dialogue"Quoted a "not familiar with China's carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emission reduction policy experts" words, the above interpretation is only ICCSD researcher hypothesis, rather than government's official position.

challenges

As China's economic model is very good at mobilize a lot of investment, therefore, expand the clean energy, electrification of transportation, and other new clean technology may not be implemented in 2060, the scale of "carbon neutral" one of the biggest challenges.

Instead, how to deal with by the elimination of fossil fuels, regional economic and political influence, may be a bigger problem in front of the country.

In low carbon development path ICCSD forecast, to 2050, the proportion of coal in China's energy supply will be less than 5%, the proportion of the power industry will also far lower than 10%.This means that, in addition to a few exceptions, 3000 sets of China's current operation of the coal-fired power generating units and 5000 coal mines will be closed.

In other words, the average retirement age of the coal-fired power plants will be 30.This is similar to China's previous experience, established 1990 years ago all power generation capacity has been retired, this shows that the average life expectancy for coal-fired power plants for 30 years.However, for this year or the next few years for new project approval, is day by day approaching 2050.

The challenge of a lesson is: with the increasingly exhausted the effect of stimulus policies, China's coal consumption and co2 emissions in 2013 to 2015 began to fall.

Initial response is billed as the development of the leadership of the new economic model (that is, the "new normal") part of the transition.By 2015, however, the state-owned mining and "industry" chimney (i.e., high emission industries) enterprise financial difficulties increased.Instead of these, the government not to restructure, launched more stimulus measures.

Dependent on fossil fuels exports overseas economies will face more severe consequences.China's latest"Binary"Economic policy, its purpose is to reduce the dependence on overseas market and technology) and the new focus of energy security showed that the country will be even harder to replace the imported by domestic supply.

Combined with the "carbon neutral" commitments driven demand for fossil fuels, as well as to the domestic coal, oil and natural gas production and transportationMassive investment, China is likely to be quick farewell imported fossil fuels.

Can also clear is that if you want to achieve "carbon neutral" vision, currently considered "not set" department will need to complete decarburization depth, especially iron and steel, cement, and chemical industrial processes and emissions of agriculture and industry.

The preliminary studies have made a simplified.They assume that: compared with "decarburization", in the department BECCS will be an easier to implement, and more economical solutions;But does not rule out future will be more economically viable alternatives.

After the main report, ICCSD will release at least 17 points department report, to explore potential solutions.ICCSD policy Suggestions and ecological environmental protection target published in 2060The statement, both called for key industrial sectors to take action, strive for the next "five-year plan" period (2021-2025), peak discharge.

Ambition gap

ICCSD also is China's ascension climate commitments under the Paris agreement gives advice.These proposals include, commitment (China) since 2025, the carbon dioxide emissions continue to grow, no longer with the emissions "peak" is only one step away.

In fact, this means that to set the upper limit of the total emissions of 10.5 billion tons.Also suggested that the institute will be China's non-fossil energy targets by 20% in 2025 to 25% in 2030 (15.3% on 2015 levels).

It also puts forward, set for 2025 "five-year plan", the coal consumption should include "peak" and strictly control new coal-fired capacity two goals.

Is the next "five-year plan" is a potentially important Suggestions, set for key cities for the energy-intensive industries and carbon dioxide "da feng" goal, in order to achieve the "peak" in the future.

However, according to the current of carbon dioxide emissions caps, emissions will continue to grow by 4% between 2020 and 2025, almost is growing at 1% a year.The researchers acknowledge that the continuing growth of China's carbon dioxide emissions cannot be consistent with the 1.5 ℃ or 2 ℃ goals, but put forward again, restricted to the "inertia" inside the system, China will lag behind the goal, must also be pursued in the future.

Is put forward according to the tsinghua university "in 2025, non-fossil energy accounted for 20%, 25% than 2030" advice, non-fossil energy will keep China's current growth, growing at about 1% a year.Since then, in 2030 and 2050, non-fossil energy growth must triple, at an annual rate of 3% growth.

Also, the growth of co2 emissions will be 1.5% per year from 2015 to 2020 slow slightly to 1% between 2025 and 2020, and then stop in 2025 to 2030.Since then, the emissions must fall at a speed of about 4% a year, to achieve "zero net" in 2060.

Therefore, the adjustment of China's recent goals, policies and commitment, to enable it to fit with the long-term goal, is still a challenging task.As shown in the figure below, if not match, then a "carbon neutral" most of the effort can only be left to the next decades.

ICCSD to 2025, 2030 and 2050 into years rate, and the current "five-year plan" period (2015-2020) has made annual variations of comparison.Source: author analysis of ICCSD scene and historical data.This chart used by the carbon bulletinHighchartsProduction.

Focus on China

When this paper introduces the research results on ICCSD ICCSD, countries respond to climate change expert committee, director of the academic committee, deputy director of professor jian-kun he proposed that China's "difference" planning has attracted much attention in the world, but for China in control "pneumonia" new champions league success enabled the country to start much earlier recovery.

Xi jinping alsoEmphasis onThe importance through the "green shoots" out of crisis.If the "green recovery" to get into the domestic policy actions, that will make the country more quickly open the road of "carbon neutral".[note: the carbon bulletin istrackingGovernments around the world to launch the "green recovery" stimulus measures.】

Another possibility is that in jinping declared "carbon neutral" goal, the upcoming "five-year plan" of energy targets will be revised accordingly, to reflect the growth of the long-term ambition.Although the program until 2021, but in the process of drafting the proposed target has been reaching the researchers offer from tsinghua university.

Reduction on cost optimization strategy research has shown that under the "linear" path to achieve goals in 2060 is the most economical (can seeThe IPCC global warming DHS 1.5 C special reportEtc.), which is a path that the outside world seems more reliable.In addition, by xi jinping I advocate is often the goal of the government and its bureaucracy overfulfilled.

Therefore, as the economic planning agency, the local government and state-owned enterprises and so on various departments on how to implement the 2060 overall vision plan put forward their own path, many factors emissions will accelerate the trend of change.