Analysis: global coal capacity fell for the first time in 2020
Dr Christine Shearer
08.13.20
Dr Christine Shearer
13.08.2020 | am were disappointedGlobal coal scale for the first time ever, was eliminated in the first half of 2020 coal capacity over the new power capacity.
That's according to aGlobal energy monitoringThe latest (GEM)Coal-fired power plants to track project around the world(GCPT) research conclusion, the study is that we finished last month, and for the first time in this report.
In the first half of 2020 the installed capacity of coal fell by 2.9 GW (2.9 GW), global coal capacity decreased to 2047 gigawatts (GW) 2047.The coal capacity decline of several reasons: Indian coal atrophy, new crown pandemic virus causes of coal productionAt a slower pacePollution, as well as the European Union to strengthen legislation, forced a large number of coal power shut down.
Nevertheless we, according to new data is still under construction worldwide coal project installed capacity reached 189.8 GW (189.8 GW), plus 331.9 GW (331.9 GW) projects are under planning.With the United Nations secretary general Antonio Guterres (Antonio but 3)requirementsAfter 2020 the world stop run counter to call for new coal-fired power plants.
In the first half of 2020, new coal-fired power plants are mainly concentrated in the development of the Chinese.In many places in the world are put on hold of coal, China hasMore coal-fired power generation planning and approval.
Outside China, the world is running in the coal-fired power generation capacity has reached its peak in 2018 - a trend that outside China now seems to keep good, because coal elimination capacity has been the production capacity of more than plan.This shift means that coal unit half of global operations are in China now, this is unprecedented.
Despite the global coal, achieving global climate but still need more quickly to reduce the use of coal.In these ten years, if you want to control the global warming below 2 c, we must reduce the coal and electricity generation at least half;If you want to control the global warming in 1.5 degrees, coal and electricity generation by three-quarters were required.
For the first time in 2020
Was eliminated in the first six months of this year coal capacity than the production capacity, hit a record.From January 1 solstice on June 30, 18.3 gigawatts of new coal project put into production, and retired coal capacity has reached 21.2 GW (21.2 GW), lead to global net reduce 2.9 GW coal-fired power generation capacity (2.9 GW), as shown in the figure below.
From 2000 to 2019, by contrast, in 20 years, the global coal capacity growth on average every six months 25 gigawatts (gw) 25.
The launch of the new coal respectively in 2020 by the China 11.4 GW 1.8 GW (11.4 GW) and Japan (1.8 GW), Germany is a new production of 1.1 GW (1.1 GW)Wear a stern coal-fired power plants, but because the German plansBefore 2038To phase out coal, a stern coal-fired power plants will be closed before this.
In the first half of 2020 coal retirement would mostly appear in the European Union's 27 countries and Britain (8.3 gw) - details will be discussed in more detail below, followed by the United States (5.4 gw) and China (1.7 gw).
Appeared for the first time in the first half of 2020 is the world's coal plants the overall decline in the solid line (below), and apart from the nations of the world outside of China coal capacity since 2018 has been in decline (dashed line).
Outside China that coal downward trend is likely to continue: by 2024, about 98.6 gw coal-fired electricity is expected to be eliminated, more than is currently 91.3 gw coal-fired power project construction.(the average coal-fired power plant construction outside China for five years.)
The European Union to promote coal downward
Global coal downward is the main force in the eu and the UK, in the first half of 2020 net capacity dropped 8.3 gw.This is the largest ever recorded in the 6-month decline in value, only for 2016 net can reduce, by contrast, reduced 8.7 gw in 12 months (see chart below).The eu plans in the second half of this year to close the other 6.0 gw coal-fired power, which the European Union is expected to in 2020, the year set a new record for the annual coal retired.
The eu and the UK heavily out of coal, mainly byThe eu carbon quotasPrices andTighten pollution regulationsThe influence of both reduces the profitability of coal-fired power plants.
In the first half of 2020, the eu's 27 coal useDecreased by 32%.A new pandemic virus resulting in a decline in demand for electricity, and coal-fired power plants due to higher operating costsAffected by the larger.
Electric power company EDP for proprietary coal-fired power plant's profitability decline, recently announced the closure of two coal-fired power plant in Portugal, to make the country is expected to achieve energy use in 2021 without the coalification, ahead of plan for two years.
At present a total of 19 European countries and the commitment to gradually in 2030Phase out coal-fired power generationPaper target is 2038, and Germany are no coalification.There are seven members of the European Union has not yet agreed to phase out coal: Spain, Poland, the Czech republic, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovenia and Croatia.
Spain and the UK coal
Although Spain hasn't committed to phase out coal, but in the eu emissions limit exemption clauseBefore the maturity date, Spain has closed in June 2020, half of the country's coal unit (4.8 gw) in 9.6 gw.Before this, Spain's coal-fired electricity every yearA 58% drop in, from the first half of 2019 8.0 TWh (TWh) in the first half of 2020 to 3.3 TWh (TWh), shown in the following table.
Britain also eliminated in the first half of 2020 a large part of the coal and electricity installed capacity, closed more than a third in a coal power plant (9.6 gw of 3.3 gw, 34%).At the same time, the grid has beenMore than two monthsGelatinization is realized.
Britain's coal-fired generating capacity has fallen by more than 95%,From 2000 to 2010, every six months of 65 terawatt hours (TWh)Average in the first half of 2020 dropped to just three terawatt hours (TWh), which suggests that the UK is likely to be inThe deadline of 2025 out of coalBefore was completely out of coal.
Coal concentration in China
Coal industry continue to focus on a few countries, ten countries alone account for the development of new coal-fired power plants in the 90% and 86% of the operating units.Currently only China is a country occupied the global on half of the coal-fired power generation capacity of the installed capacity in the development of (50%) and half (48%), the middle of 2018, China's share of the share of developing coal and electricity installed capacity is only34%Rapid growth.
The table below shows the concentration of coal and electricity distribution, the table lists the located in the development of new coal (left column) and has been operating coal capacity (right column) of the top ten countries.
| countries | Developing (gw) | Accounted for | countries | The operation (gw) | Accounted for |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 252.2 | 48.4% | China | 1022.9 | 50.0% |
| India | 64.8 | 12.4% | The United States | 239.8 | 11.7% |
| Turkey | 33.7 | 6.5% | India | 228.2 | 11.1% |
| Indonesia | 31.3 | 6.0% | Japan | 48.3 | 2.4% |
| Vietnam | 29.7 | 5.7% | Germany | 45.4 | 2.2% |
| In Cambodia, | 21.0 | 4.0% | Russia | 44.6 | 2.2% |
| The Philippines | 12.1 | 2.3% | South Africa | 41.4 | 2.0% |
| Japan | 9.9 | 1.9% | South Korea | 36.4 | 1.8% |
| South Africa | 9.4 | 1.8% | Indonesia | 33.1 | 1.6% |
| Mongolia | 7.5 | 1.4% | Poland | 30.0 | 1.5% |
| The top ten | 471.6 | 90.4% | The top ten | 1770 us | 86.5% |
| The rest of the world | 50.1 | 9.6% | The rest of the world | 276.9 | 13.5% |
| A total of | 521.7 | 100.0% | A total of | 2047.0 | 100.0% |
In the first half of 2020, China has also led the development of coal-fired power plants, accounting for 90% of the new planning capacity (53.2 gw) of 59.4 gw, 86% of the newly built coal-fired power plant (12.8 gw) of 15.0 gw, and 62% of the new power plant (11.4 gw) in 18.3 gw.As shown in the figure below.
From January 1, 2020 solstice on June 30, China province approved the new 19.7 gw coal-fired capacity, it has achieved since the central government in 2016Limit of coal for approvalThe highest level.This phenomenon is mainly happened in 3 months, couldn't help peopleConcerns about: the new crown after virus outbreak, in response to the situation of the economic slowdown, the provinces will coal-fired power plants consideredTo stimulate the economyOne of the ways, thus cause the China coal boom?So far, the central government limit the growth of coalmoveIs generally weak.
According to theThe university of MarylandtheAnalysis of the, a large number of coal power of continuous construction will add to China'sOvercapacity crisis.By 2025, China's coal-fired power plants will be less than 50% from the current average utilization dropped to less than 45%, it will bring bad impact on the profitability of coal.
Coal is slowing outside China
Outside China, the world new coal development plan in 2020, slowing rapidly, onlySeven countriesNew coal project planning and construction are put forward.(these countries are India, the Philippines, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Turkey, Russia and Brazil, as shown in the pie chart below.)
India has been reducing its share in global coal development, in development projects from the mid - 201817%Fell to 12% in mid - 2020.In the first half of the country in 2020 did not start new projects, and reducing coal unit by 0.3 GW GW, which is unthinkable in a few years ago.
Southeast Asia is considered to be the world's largestCoal growth marketOne of the first half of 2020 the region's new planning of coal capacity only 1 gw, at the same time to start building the coal project, only 0.8 gw.Since 2015, the region it every six monthsnew2.9 gw coal-fired power planning, some new coal project 2.7 gw, fell 70% year-on-year in the first half of 2020 data.
Vietnam is on the "no. 8 electric power development planning at presentproposedTo cancel the planned 9.5 gw coal-fired capacity, and the other 7.6 gw until after 2030.If the draft is confirmed, it will lead to new Vietnam in 2030 to of coal fell by 48%, reduced from 35.5 gw to 18.4 gw.
The coal of southeast Asia downward because of new coal-fired power plants in the regionThe two biggest investors- Japan and South Korea are faced with persistentThe publicpressureAnd asked them to end support for coal technologies.
So far, the two governments have adopted a strictrestrictions.South Korean lawmakers will target in the near futureA series of actMake a decision, which goal is to end the country's public funds support for overseas coal project.More and more limit makes the financing of coal-fired power plantsMore and more difficultTo obtain a guarantee, while the bank of China isThe last of the lender.
In South Asia, Bangladesh, secretary of energyRecently announced, the country could be the future of new coal-fired power plants is limited to only three coal-fired power plants under construction:Matarbari,Rampal, andPayra.This means that Bangladesh will cancel plan in the rest of the 17.9 gw coal-fired power generation capacity.
In June 2020 was cancelled in PakistanCover Sam port0.7 gw power station plan, the reason is the country are dealing withThe recent productionTwo coal-fired power plants of economic problems (financed by Chinese companies.
It is important to note that some of the world's largest coal-fired power plant planning in 2020 were canceled or reduced size, along with the operating time of cut their potential alternative energy and profitability, the coal "large project".
For example, in February 2020, Egyptian ministry said will delay the construction of 6.6 gwHama for coal-fired power plantsTo start a renewable energy project.According to the这一决定，埃及已经搁置或取消了先前规划的所有15.2吉瓦新煤电。俄罗斯还将其拟议的ErkovetskayaThe size of the coal-fired power plant in 2013 from 8.0 gw to 1.0 gw.
Coal and climate goals
Although there was a decrease in the development and production of coal, in the next 10 years, global coal consumption and its associated carbon dioxide emissions will only is expectedVery slowly.However, in order to achieveThe Paris agreementTarget, toIn 2030,Coal use must be based on relevant reduction of greenhouse gas emissions path has fallen dramatically.
According to the global energy monitoringThe intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC)aboutSpecial report of 1.5 degrees(SR15) proposed by the analysis of the way, by 2030, if you want to control the global warming below 2 degrees Celsius, the usage of coal need to reduce about half (53%), and to control the temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius, coal consumption is to reduce three-quarters (73%).
These figures apply to the specific situation, we forecast in these situationsThe basic temperature control goalAnd at the same time assume that coal power plants without carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technology.This assumption is closer to the truth, at presentThere are few commercial coal-fired power plantsHas or plans to deploy the implementation of the technology, so the technology is widely applied in the next decade the possibility is very small.
These figures and the bulletin of the carbonThe latest analysisSimilar.Who found that by 2030, at 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming carbon emissions way of target, all coal use (including power and industrial use) caused by carbon dioxide emissions must be up to 80% lower than the current level, and temperature below 2 degrees Celsius in the scenario, need 42-70% drop in carbon dioxide emissions.
Even if they don't include the planned new coal development project, the existing coal capacity far overload, departure from the way to conform to the goal of the climate.
In the following figure shows the IPCC scenarios (black line) of coal power generation and the estimate of existing power plant coal and electricity generation.The estimation hypothesis coal-fired power plants running 40 years before closing, and with 51% of the "load factor" run, consistent with the current global average.
Shown above, the way to conform to the goal of the Paris agreement for global coal use requirement is: the existing coal-fired power plants to shut down earlier than the recent average and/or operating in the form of far below its capacity, until retirement.But it's also worth pointing out is that it does not include the planned new coal-fired power plants.
Organization climate analysis", a nongovernmental organization specializing in climate change research, argues that more affluentThe organisation for economic co-operation and developmentAnd the European Union countries (yellow column in the above) should be inIn 2030,Phasing out before its coal-fired units, because these countries have more resources can be quickly to make the transition to clean energy.
"Take off the coal alliance"(PPCA), estimates that by 2030, 58% of the European Union and the organisation for economic co-operation and development countries will be coalification is realized.The United States占全球燃煤发电量的13％，仅次于中国，但是美国不在承诺无煤化发展国家之列。
Japan is not in plans to phase out coal in oecd countries.Although the Japanese government recentlyannouncedBy 2030 out 100 "inefficient coal-fired units" plan, but based in JapanKiko NetworkAnalysis, it is likely to remain more than in 203035 gwThe coal-fired power generation to continue to operate.(the carbon bulletin必威手机官网Carbon Brief analysisAnalysis of similar conclusions.
For China, recent studies have shown that quickly built renewable energy than coal production capacity continues to expandThe cost is much lower.anotherresearchFound that to limit China's coal industryStranded assetsThe cost of a construction project is the optimal way to immediately suspend, limit coal-fired power plant life in 20 to 30 years, and reduce the residual capacity utilization in stages.
New crown after a pandemic virus, countries around the world are takingTo stimulate the economyThe measures.In this case, the priority should be given to economic recovery use clean energy instead of coal.Think tank "carbon track"CarbonTrackerThe latestAnalysis of theShow that the construction of new renewable energy has been much cheaper than to continue operating 60% of the world's coal-fired power generating units, to 2030 renewable energy will win 100% of the world's coal in terms of cost.
Information box coal-fired power plants to track projects around the worldGlobal Coal Plant Tracker(GCPT) containsOnline map,The statistical dataAs well as the power plantWiki page.The carbon bulletin of using data from the tracking system to generateThe global map of coal-fired power plantsAnd schedule.Database to address climate change including the European action network of partnersCAN EuropeResearch center, energy and clean airCentre for Research on 必威体育在线注册Energy and Clean Air, Europe beyond coal (Europe)Europe Beyond Coal,GreenIDGreen peace organizationGreenpeace,Kiko NetworkThe climate justice movementPhilippine Movement for Climate JusticeThe sierra club,The Sierra ClubandYayasan Indonesia or Cerah.
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Analysis: global coal capacity fell for the first time in 2020
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Guest post: 2020: global coal size fell for the first time ever