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Factory workers in Tongcheng, China, on 17 November 2020. Credit: Costfoto/Alamy Stock Photo.
A heavy industry factory, on the tongcheng city of China, taken on November 17, 2020. Image: Costfoto/Alamy agency
betway777必威
8 March 2021"

Analysis: China's carbon dioxide emissions soared 4% in the second half of 2020

Lauri Myllyvirta

03.08.21

Lauri Myllyvirta

08.03.2021 | 3:15 PM
betway777必威 Analysis: China's carbon dioxide emissions soared 4% in the second half of 2020

Although China's carbon dioxide emissions in the first half of the year fell 3% year-on-year during epidemic control, but the values in the second half of the excess growth, climbed by more than 4%.forThe statistics bulletin of the national economy and social development(hereinafter referred to as the "bulletin"), according to the analysis of all of 2020, China's carbon dioxide emissions 1.5% higher than in 2019.

China's economic recovery after the outbreak of the first round of mainly relies on the construction industry or heavy industry such as pollution policy stimulus of the plates.The move makes China in the global outbreak and the central governmentcommitmentIn 2060, the implementation of the "carbon neutral" big background, still in the second half of 2020 witnessed the rapid growth of the coal, oil and gas consumption.

China's next "five-year plan" the target has been put forward by the central, and this set of the latest data are proved the importance of the plan.Although China during the period of "difference" by "tough" to curb carbon emissions rise is unlikely, but the plan is likely to slow emissions growth.

Emissions from surging

In early 2020, the Chinese government to cope with the "new champions" epidemic spreading adopted strict epidemic prevention measures, resulting in 2 to 3 months of the countryCarbon dioxide emissions fell 10% year-on-year.However, once remove controls, emissions rose rapidly, not only is beyond the level before the outbreak, and a new record for the ground in the third quarter increased 3% year-on-year.

On the analysis of China's latest statistics report data throughout the year, according to the fourth quarter of the emissions rise, a direct result of total emissions in a year in 2020 increased 1.5% from 2019.The figure below shows how the emissions growth, yellow column on behalf of the emissions in the first half of 2020, the red column on behalf of the emissions in the second half of 2020.

Annual growth of Chinas CO2 emissions, 2015-2020
According to the statistics bulletin of the national economy and social development are calculated from 2015 to 2020 China's annual increase in emissions of carbon dioxide.Annual floated in 2020 were divided into two parts, to display with the outbreak of the first half of the economic contraction and the second half of the heavy industry leading the economic rebound on the impact of emissions, respectively.In the second half of the specific data from the mediareportsDisclosed in the first half of the emissions data, and based on the authorWIND financial terminalThe monthly trade data for analysis.The chart used by the carbon bulletinHighchartsTo draw.

Although the annual emissions of 1.5% growth for China's recent emissions growth trend, but in the second half of the emissions in revealed new trend.

On the surface, China's coal consumption only slightly rose 0.6% last year (2018 and 2019, by contrast, growth of 1%).But it just covers the country's coal demand in the second half of last year's surge in reality.

If, as theReport says,China's coal demand is dropped by 2.3% year-on-year in the first half of last year, the annual demand growth of 0.6% means the country in the second half of the coal consumption jumped by 3.2%.Is closely related to the growth of the important energy and emissions data, please see below.

Compilation of key indicators related to Chinas CO2 emissions, 2015-2020
According to the statistics bulletin of the national economy and social development are calculated from 2015 to 2020 the key to numerical summary related to China's carbon dioxide emissions.2020 annual data is divided into two pieces, to display with the outbreak of the first half of the leading economic rebound in the second half of economic contraction and heavy industry on the impact of emissions, respectively.In the second half of the specific data from the mediareportsDisclosed in the first half of the emissions data, and based on the authorWIND financial terminalThe monthly trade data for analysis.The chart used by the carbon bulletinHighchartsTo draw.

According to official figures, China's oil demand in the first half of last year dropped by at least 7% (down 15%) demand for refined oil.The organization of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC)Similar to the same period China's oil demand forecast, forecast a 7.1% drop.In the second half of 2020, by contrast, China's oil demand has rebounded 6.5%.

First cement output in the first six months of shrank by nearly 5%, then 8% increased sharply since June.

In the first half of last year's economic and industrial data withStrong uncertainty, official statistics seemingly would collapse in a domestic production activities.But this article calculate the correction in the second half of the emissions and other sources of relevant data.

Throughout 2020, "the communique said electricity demand rose by 3.1%, and the thermal power generation (mainly coal and gas) increased by 2.1%.So even if the power generation industry emissions continue to rise, has become slightly cleaned up the power structure.Wind and solar powerIncreased by about 15%, nuclear, solar and hydropower growth rates were 5%, 9% and 4% respectively.

Even though literally official disclosure of gross domestic product (GDP) data, then the energy intensity of China's overall economic improvement is limited, only by 0.1%;Carbon dioxide emissions intensity is decreased by 0.8%.Respectively reflects the energy consumption and carbon emissions per unit of GDP.

The communique on carbon intensity took an integer, or 1%.If, however, the growth of coal, oil and gas consumption calculation, can get a more accurate data.

What to pull the emissions to rise?

Reflected the rapid rebound in China's energy consumption and emissions fromIn mid - 2020Recovery of the domestic economy "dirty" (dirty recovery) model.The governmentReuse theTried and policy, namely stimulus is increased by the construction industry and heavy industry such as the "dirty", the most energy-intensive industries, to balance the other industry malaise.

The model in steel production data on the performance of the most obvious: in 2020, crude steel production increased 7%, four times the size of the increase of GDP growth, to 10%.

In China, the iron and steel production is one of the largest carbon dioxide and air pollutant emissions.Since most steel went to the construction industry, iron and steel production is also the key indicators of construction volume.

With some countries through transfer income to support family income policy after the epidemic, China has taken different means of recovery, the purpose is to promote the development of China's foreign trade industry.

Although these policies can help China on GDP to satisfactory answer, but in the pursuit"High quality" developmentTo build a green economy on the journey of backsliding.

A factor contributing to the surge of emissions is that many local governments are not imposed on coal and steel production capacity control.According to conservative estimates, the national government at all levels should strictly implement the "capacity" of the steel control target in 2020, to 300 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions cuts, this is equivalent to the second half of 2020, China's carbon dioxide emissions and 4% of total increment.

(a few days ago, the ecological environment protection inspectorate for national energy bureau conducted a round of unprecedented inspector, and severely criticized the council approval of the eastern province of coal and energy intensive industries expansion plans.According to the relevant national air quality policy, the eastern region should have strict production control measures.Bulletin of the carbonFull-length featureExplains in detail the criticism to the profound influence of the climate policy in China.)

China's recovery mode and have been in the industry expected.The international energy agency (IEA),Forecast in April, China's energy consumption will fall by 4% in a year in 2020, this also means that annual co2 emissions should be further reduced.But the agencyPointed out in NovemberChina's emissions has risen back to track.

Surging emissions mean for China's climate goals?

In 2020, carbon dioxide emissions intensity only slightly increased by 0.8%.This means that China has completed the easilyThe goal of the Copenhagen accordThat states parties in 2020 carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP should be down 40% to 45% compared with 2005 levels.According to media reports, as of 2019, established the performance during the term of ChinaalreadyCut back on emissions per unit of GDP by 48%.

This also means that even though China's total emissions of carbon dioxide in 2020 has increased, but it is still in line with the climate of China to the international community make a commitment.Its commitment to China after 2020 even left a sufficient space emissions continue to rise.

However, the acceleration of the second half of 2020 emissions growth and strive for China2030 years agoAchieve the goal of "carbon peak".China若想在2060年前落实“碳中和”commitment, then drops rapidly after carbon emissions must be in the peak.

In addition, the growth of the fossil fuels not only is the result of limited demand in the short term, is also will be pulled from long-term infrastructure locking demand continued to expand.

ChinaAlmost monopoliedIn 2020, new investment in coal-fired power plants.In global has approved the new project, China accounted for three quarters.Announced in the global new coal-fired power plants planning projects, China is also account for four 5.

In 2020, China's total of 38 gigawatts (GW) of new coal and electricity into the grid, which is equivalent to add a large coal-fired power plant every week.China announced new coal-fired power plant project the total installed capacity of 73 gigawatts of, but out of coal and electricity installed capacity less than 9 gw last year.At the same time, the rest of the world's new project contracting.

Focusing on the "difference" planning

When the Chinese President xi jinping declared "reaching 2060 carbon neutral" goal, he should have realized its sustained and rapid rise in emissions and fossil fuel infrastructure investment is growing rapidly.

Therefore, acquisition, chairman of the promise may be signaling in the domestic, hoping to reverse the trend.But it could also be a signal around the world, for this will still be in the next decade to keep emissions growth of the economy with a layer of green coat.

Energy targets in the planning of "difference" can help the public to learn more about the Chinese government to "carbon peak" and "carbon neutral" commitments in the first place.

The draft of the master plan has been submitted on March 5 to the thirteenth session of the fourth meeting of the National People's Congress to discuss.Previously, the industry predicted that the draft will put forward the total energy consumption of "total control target and non-fossil energy accounted for (the amount of renewable energy and nuclear power).

The two groups of target data weighting will jointly determine the upper limit of China's carbon dioxide emissions in 2025, even if the fossil fuels of the upper limit value of the concrete structure may result in the slight fluctuations.

In the second half of this year during the first half of next year, the ecological environment will be according to the central "carbon peak" goal, is in the field of energy, renewable energy, coal and other carbon dioxide emissions targets put forward more specific plans and all kinds of refined goals will also be in the later developed.

Sharelines from this story
  • Analysis: China's carbon dioxide emissions soared 4% in the second half of 2020
  • "Bulle必威手机官网tin of Carbon (Carbon Brief) the latest analysis shows that although affected by the global outbreak of the" new champions ", the second half of 2020 China's surge in Carbon dioxide output still lead to annual emissions are higher than in 2019.

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